Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.987384 16.280276 18.776136 21.687600 24.983158 28.590147 32.828953
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 10.025458 13.066456 16.700700 21.331050 27.037276 33.800642 42.381119
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 7.765657 11.168422 15.573977 21.616844 29.598892 39.680560 53.259661
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 6.043819 9.503562 14.315268 21.355535 31.225209 44.375954 62.988264
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 5.184099 8.802825 14.151491 22.410996 34.569299 51.484815 76.389305
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.375946 7.990217 13.644894 22.820769 36.938722 57.353927 88.477726
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.673304 7.191355 13.000771 22.875078 38.700080 62.403271 99.694546
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.115474 6.518737 12.432467 22.927471 40.389818 67.395716 111.104177
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.915140 6.444738 12.839668 24.592339 44.743299 76.708130 129.609295
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.651961 6.197981 12.896987 25.641893 48.146788 84.737200 146.611782
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.414312 5.954762 12.917301 26.606312 51.457309 92.803905 164.132338
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.093746 5.474133 12.414546 26.544595 52.954399 97.963372 177.234977
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.720061 4.810210 11.474813 25.588592 52.840845 100.539254 186.484931
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.422641 4.257048 10.676749 24.808281 52.971752 103.546115 196.683103
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.246159 3.960580 10.379413 24.993284 54.923391 109.862894 212.931874
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.059614 3.592039 9.860282 24.643967 55.791080 114.271666 226.086311
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.990836 3.531000 10.042615 25.817697 59.769964 124.605224 250.334588
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.889887 3.351975 9.911260 26.272846 62.308857 132.386204 270.351749
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.782195 3.124626 9.622604 26.331121 64.017122 138.682419 287.966231
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.688690 2.916983 9.349851 26.389139 65.717614 145.049300 306.026746
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.677415 2.982932 9.815760 28.268584 71.501606 159.726550 340.461217
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.639135 2.945356 9.991947 29.452461 75.836132 171.753625 370.388577
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.600035 2.895048 10.124763 30.539727 80.030946 183.717759 400.736082